Academy Award Prediction: Best Actor in a Leading Role

Best Actor in a Leading Role

Richard Jenkins, The Visitor

Frank Langella, Frost / Nixon

Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Sean Penn, Milk

Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

The Best Actor category has traditionally been the easiest to predict, but this year it does not seem so easy. Sean Penn would be the clear winner if he didn't just win in 2003. Despite voters wanting to spread the love around to those who haven't won before, Penn plays a real life gay politician killed by an assassins bullet in a Best Picture nominee. Chances are, the voters will want to give Milk a consolation prize. Penn finds himself grappling with the comeback story of the year. Mickey Rourke, who has experienced a career rejuvenation with the success of The Wrestler, would be the clear favorite if he didn't threaten to actually wrestle at Wrestlemania. Rourke is not very refined, but his heartfelt speeches at the Golden Globes and BAFTAs were accepted warmly, and giving him an Oscar would be a great story. Penn has a reputation for being a hot head, and has publicly stated the Oscars don't mean much. However, Rourke if offbeat and the Oscars are very tradition. This is the closest two horse race of the night. In the end, Hollywood will stick to its' guns and give the statue to Penn.