Best Actress in a Supporting Role Amy Adams, Doubt
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Taraji P Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler
The category that provides the most upsets in Oscar history, (Marisa Tomei in 1992, Juliette Binoche in 1996, Judi Dench in 1998, Marcia Gay Harden in 2000, Tilda Swinton in 2007) is the closest and toughest race to call this year. Unlike the tight Best Actor race, all five nominees have a legitimate shot at winning. Penelope Cruz was the front runner heading into the Golden Globes, but her losses to Kate Winslet have worked against her. Now it is a free for all. Cruz is incredibly talented, beautiful and plays a fiery Spanish ex-wife, but her film wasn't nominated in any other category. Henson is Button's best shot at winning a major award, but I have a feeling all the Button love will be in the tech categories. Tomei, who plays the role voters love, a stripper, could walk away with her second career Oscar but voters like to spread the love. I have a gut feeling that with four acting nominations, the Academy will want to reward Doubt with one win, and this category is the best shot. With two contenders, the Doubt actresses could split the vote, but Viola Davis has the showiest role and gives a short poignant performance that begs for recognition. This is such a toss up that I will pick Davis but am not very confident.
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